Trend Descriptors

These definitions explain the Trend analysis used on NTHA Statistics charts. Trend calculations use the underlying observations at full precision; displayed percentages are rounded for presentation.

2Y Trend (% p.a.)

The annualised rate implied by a linear trend fitted across the latest 24 months of data. It smooths short-term fluctuations to show the underlying direction and strength.

Current vs Trend

The percentage difference between the latest actual observation and the fitted trend value for the same period. Results above +3.0% are described as Above trend; results below -3.0% are described as Below trend. Results from -3.0% to +3.0% inclusive are described as Holding, because they are close enough to trend to be treated as broadly on trend. The signed percentage is still shown; for example, -1.3% may be described as “holding close to trend at 1.3% below trend.”

Momentum

Compares the recent 12-month trend rate with the 24-month trend rate. An upward result means the recent rate is stronger, a downward result means it is weaker, and a steady result means the rates are broadly similar.

Classification

Summarises trend strength and momentum. Strong is 10% p.a. or more; Moderate is 3% to under 10%; Weak is under 3%. Momentum is then combined with that strength to make the displayed classification.

Analysis Direction

Positive: positive movement is Favourable and negative movement is Unfavourable. Negative: positive movement is Unfavourable and negative movement is Favourable. Direction controls table ranking and interpretation; it does not change the underlying numeric result.